An Ipsos B&A poll released as voting closed at 23CET showed centre-right Fine Gael leading with 21% of the vote, while its centre-right coalition partner in the outgoing government, Fianna Fáil, was on 19.5%.
ADVERTISEMENTThe official exit poll in Ireland’s parliamentary election suggests the three biggest parties won roughly equal shares of the vote and the country is on course for another coalition government.
An Ipsos B&A poll released as voting closed at 23CET showed the centre-right party Fine Gael leading with 21% of the vote, while its centre-right coalition partner in the outgoing government, Fianna Fáil, was on 19.5%.
Third is Sinn Fein with 21.1% from the left of the center.
Ballot counting begins on Saturday morning, and because Ireland uses a complex system of proportional representation known as a single transferable vote, it could take anywhere from a few hours to several days for the full results to be known.
The result will show whether Ireland bucks the global trend of incumbent governments being replaced by disgruntled voters after years of the pandemic, international instability and cost-of-living pressures.
Sinn Féin, which urged people to vote for the changes, welcomed the result.
“There is every chance that Sinn Féin will emerge as the largest political party at this election,” Sinn Féin’s director of elections Matt Carthy told public service RTÉ.
Although Sinn Féin, which aims to reunify Northern Ireland with an independent Republic of Ireland, could become the largest party in the 174-seat Dáil, the lower house of parliament, it may struggle to get enough coalition partners to form a government.
Both Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil refused to form alliances with her.
The outgoing government was led by the two parties that have dominated Irish politics for the past century: Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil.
They have similar center-right politics, but are long-time rivals with origins on opposing sides of the Irish Civil War in the 1920s.
After the 2020 election ended in a virtual dead heat, they formed a coalition, agreeing to share cabinet posts and take turns as Taoiseach, or prime minister.
Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin was Prime Minister for the first half of the term, replaced by Fine Gael’s Leo Varadkar in December 2022.
Varadkar unexpectedly resigned in March, handing the job to the current Taoiseach, Simon Harris.
Opposition party Sinn Féin scored a stunning breakthrough in the 2020 election, sweeping the vote but was kicked out of government after Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael refused to work with it, citing its left-wing politics and historic links to the Irish Republican Army militant group during three decades of violence in Northern Ireland.
ADVERTISEMENTUnder Ireland’s system of proportional representation, each of the 43 constituencies elects multiple MPs, and voters rank their preferences. This makes it easier for smaller parties and independent candidates with strong local followings to win seats.
Cost of living and access to affordable housing dominated the campaign.
Ireland has an acute housing shortage, a legacy of a failure to build enough new homes during the country’s “Celtic Tiger” boom years and the economic downturn that followed the 2008 global financial crisis.
The result is rising house prices, rising rents and rising homelessness.
ADVERTISEMENTIntertwined with the housing issue is immigration, a fairly recent challenge for a country long defined by emigration.
Recent arrivals include more than 100,000 Ukrainians displaced by war and thousands fleeing poverty and conflict in the Middle East and Africa.
The country of 5.4 million has struggled to house all the asylum seekers, leading to tent camps and makeshift accommodation centers that have sparked tensions and protests.
Unlike many European countries, Ireland does not have a significant far-right party, but far-right voices on social media are seeking to stir up hostility towards migrants, and anti-immigrant independent candidates are hoping to win elections in several constituencies.
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