We can say that it does not lack air… After having imposed by a last-minute blackmail the withdrawal of Michel Barnier on several major budgets of the draft budget, Marine Le Pen continued to raise stakes on Friday while lamenting that ” latest announcements “by the Prime Minister” they are not financed by structural economies ” and ” aggravates an already abysmal deficit “.
It’s really the hospital that doesn’t care about charity! In terms of large budgets, the RN is not really exemplary, with a program estimated at 100 billion euros of new spending by the Montaigne Institute during the last early legislative elections. Less than that of the New People’s Front of course, but at least it balanced with the tax increase… The craziest measure of the National Rally program, the return to the age of 60 at full speed, was estimated at 38 billion from. the Montaigne Institute compared to 17 billion from the nationalist party. The march towards the economic credibility of the RN is still high.
Under pressure, the Prime Minister, who in a few weeks built a budget from the probabilities and ends up making everyone pay a little to bring the deficit towards 5% of GDP, will he succeed in the week? The first test comes on Monday night with possible censorship on the PLFSS, the Social Security budgetor failure that mid-December when it will be necessary to pass the state budget by the procedure of 49.3.
“Liar Poker Game”
Subject to an ultimatum until Monday to improve his copy, Michel Barnier has already greatly reduced his sail. Less than expected increase in electricity taxation, a bit of a farceprobable waiver of any gas increase, but also reduction of the means of state medical aid, promises to examine the proportional representation in the spring for the next legislative elections: these concessions actually satisfy more than just the RN, but the rest of the ” red lines “said the president of the party Jordan Bardella, who is much less welcome to propose documented savings trips.
In this lying poker game, Michel Barnier probably waited too long to want to play for time and found himself shorthanded with a pretty mediocre hand. But it is perhaps risky to condemn it to censorship so soon, as Emmanuel Macron suggested before denying it. Because if the Elysée supports its Prime Minister like a hanging rope, it remains a solid rope from rope to rope, that of the financial markets that led French ten-year rates to slide to the level of Greek rates. Of course, it is only 3%, but if Trump’s policy causes inflation to rise in 2025, the burden of the debt, already the largest budget of the state, will continue to grow. It could double, to 100 billion euros a year, by the end of the decade…
The investors, called to finance the 300 billion euros in state bonds that France will have to put next year, do not like the political instability and make us pay more and more. This is the ruse of the story’s reason. It is not so sure that the voters of the RN, especially the electors of retirees and savers living attracted by a Jordan Bardella in search of economic credibility, appreciate very much to see France plunge into a political crisis that would not than add to the financial situation. invoice without solving anything. Sometimes, you need a little common sense… Especially as the state of health of the economy worsens, and the morale of families and companies is in the socks, not under the tree .
“Political Nuclear Fire”
Michel Barnier, who acts as if he had to spend Christmas, has already planned a new government seminar to prepare for 2025. The skillful negotiator that he is can not be counted only at Notre-Dame de Paris , whose reopening will materialize next week, to avoid budget drama. At Bercy, at the Department of the Treasury, we have prepared for all scenarios. “ Everyone has to take their responsibilities “said the Prime Minister on the sidelines of an SME fair.
One thing is certain, History will judge harshly those who take responsibility for needlessly plunging France into a financial crisis that it can avoid, at a time when the lack of visibility throws companies into anguish the next day and raises the unemployment curve. With political nuclear fire at her disposal, Marine Le Pen will have to think twice before using it, because this permanent hostage-taking strategy could well backfire on her. Will there be turkey at Christmas? As the first opponent and candidate for the highest office, only she knows and we will soon see if she is a poker or chess player…
Read about La Tribune this week
. The bad weather: electricity grids on the front line. Find this Sunday in La Tribune Dimanche our supplement on the challenges of adapting to climate change.
. Legacy: the explosive traces of the Jean-Jaurès Foundation. A memo written by a socialist senator and two senior civil servants calls for a review of inheritance taxation. However, it promises to save 99% of households.
. Black Friday: our tips to decipher the label. The biggest business transaction of the year takes place this Friday, November 29. A day that is not without danger for consumers.
. Mass distribution: textiles made in France make their debut. Reputed to be too expensive, textiles made in France still manage to invest in large-scale distribution and retail brands. All the cost of significant investments in their industrial processes.
