Disappointing. This is the general feeling after the joint committee (CMP) of Wednesday on the social security budget. As a reminder, the Social Security Financing Bill (PLFSS) had the initial purpose of saving money. More precisely, it reaches the target of 16 billion euros in deficit, compared to 18.5 billion euros this year, making 12.3 billion euros of savings. But the final text, which will be presented to MPs on Monday, is much less ambitious. The multiple reversals of the government to accommodate everyone lead to a deficit that should be around 19 billion euros in 2025, i.e. 3 billion more than what the executive wanted, calculated Frédéric Valletoux, Member of Parliament for Horizons and president of the Social Affairs Commission of the National Assembly.
In detail, the spending reductions are relatively stable after the combined joint committee (4.9 and 4.7 billion) while revenues have been significantly reduced (from 8.6 billion euros to 5.8 billion euros), according to the MP. If there is indeed a slowdown in the deficit, estimated at 28.4 billion euros for 2025 without any measures according to the Court of Accountsit is clear that the results are very mixed.
” In the end, it is not a very flamboyant budget project. This text does not express a strong political ambition, there is no structural reform “, summarizes Frédéric Valletoux.
Pensions, “soda tax” and employer contributions
And for good reason, the government has returned two key measures that allow it to save money:The increase in employer contributions, expected to bring 4 billion euros, now down to 1.6 billion, and the 7 hours of unpaid work a year that bring 2.3 billion and proposed by the Senate. The latter had, through its measures, proposed a text with a reduction of 1 billion euros in the deficit.
Among the revenues of the final text, we find a strengthening of the “soda tax” requested by the Senate, of 4 cents per liter for less sugary drinks, and up to 35 cents per liter for the sweetest. Added to this is an increase in taxes on lotteries, casinos and sports betting. On the other hand, without accelerating the price of a pack of cigarettes or a tax on “pouches”, these bags of nicotine in gum or pearls to put in the mouth.
The budget that will be presented on Monday also returned to the freezing of indexation of pensions until July 1, another measure strongly contested by the opposition, which was expected to bring 3.6 billion euros of savings Finally, the parliamentarians found a compromise with an indexation of pensions at half inflation from January 1 (+0.8%) and a supplement from July 1 to reach +1.6% for pensions below 1,500 euros gross . A device that is not enough for the National Rally, seeing here a red line and an argument to put a motion of censure after the presentation of the text, if however the latter passes without a vote with a 49.3.
Uncertainties about reimbursement for medical consultations
Another red line of the party: the increase in user fees, where the part not covered by Social Security of medical consultations. For now, the latest text of the Social Security Financing Bill (PLFSS) indicates a 5% reduction in reimbursement for consultations, as well as for medications. However, the co-payment measure is applied by decree and, in fact, is not in the law. It can therefore be changed at any time when the government decides, and the figures given are for the moment purely indicative. Because initially, the PLFSS provided for a 10% reduction in the coverage of medical consultations, quickly modified by the Minister of Health, Geneviève Darrieussecq.
Since then, the National Rally has brandished this sword of Damocles as an argument for the censure motion. Right? If it is difficult to know what the government will do to enforce this decree, one sentence of PLFSS questions, evoke ” 600 million euros of additional cost moderation and efficiency measures that must be particularly documented by regulatory measures “.
This can therefore vary from the intensification of the fight against fraud to an increase in user fees. To remember, a 5% reduction in the cost of medical consultations and a 5% reduction in medication costs costs less than a 10% reduction in consultations, hence the hesitation of some elected officials to the government. All roads remain open today, the executive could make some last-minute adjustments, often marginal, before Monday’s vote in the Assembly.
