As bitcoin (BTC) wobbles around the $90,000-$95,000 area, down more than 10% from its all-time high touched just under four weeks ago, a contrast is growing among traders – whose analysis tools techniques show the top of cryptocurrency may be due to another dive. – and long-term investors who believe that the bull run is not over.
This is according to David Siemer, CEO of Wave Digital Assets, a company that provides asset management services to funds and high net worth individuals in the crypto space. The company counts Charles Hoskinson, the CEO of the company behind Cardano, as one of its customers.
“In 14 years of owning bitcoin, I’ve never seen a dichotomy like this,” Siemer told CoinDesk in an interview. “Traders are all worried and nervous and hedged, completely neutral or worse. And the long-term people are all super bullish.”
“There’s a good chance we’ll go to $200,000 (for bitcoin) this year,” Siemer said. “Do I think we’ll see $1 million dollars per coin in my lifetime? For sure. Not soon, you know, not in the next year. … The smartest, most connected people I know are also really bullish. More will happen in the next six months than most people realize.”
Top of the list of developments for the coming year is that numerous jurisdictions – including the United States, Russia, Singapore, the United Arab Emirates, South Korea, Japan, the Philippines and some European nations – are looking to make major strides in favor of crypto. , according to Siemer. (Wave runs crypto educational programs for various branches of the US government, such as the Internal Revenue Service or the US Marshals Service, as well as other executive bodies around the globe; in fact, government practices are the company’s fastest growing business.)
These steps, whatever form they take, will likely have positive effects on some of these countries’ private sectors, Siemer said. “(Japan or Singapore), they are societies where they trust and rely on their governments. If their government says it’s good, it’s really good. It’s different from the United States where we think our guys are idiots.”
What is such a sudden interest in the crypto industry? The tremendous success of the US spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETF), for one, is forcing financial institutions around the world to think of ways to compete. This means spinning up new exotic products, such as multi-token performance funds, to offset the liquidity that has been sucked up by BlackRock’s IBIT.
“ETFs launched in America and they absolutely devastated all bitcoin ETPs in the world,” said Siemer. “They all had these terrible products, charging 1.5%. All those guys were crushed.” Regulators, for their part, will tend to be supportive, Siemer said. For example, the European Union could end up producing a more friendly version of the Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA).
The chance of seeing new strategic bitcoin reserves is also high, Siemer said. “Even if the United States does not make a reservation, at least several other countries probably will,” he added. Not that he is bearish about the prospects in the Wave of the United States, he said, he is currently in discussions with seven different states that consider the matter of creating a reserve, Texas, Ohio and Wyoming among them.
What about the federal government? Siemer puts the odds at slightly better than 50-50, thanks in part to the almost $19 billion of bitcoin that he already owns.
“It’s a decent start on a bitcoin reserve,” Siemer said. “All they have to do is not sell it. It’s much more pleasing to the tax base than buying, you know, $10 billion of bitcoin.
